Big numbers are Friday, Sept 4 cash close — Monday, Sept 7 was a holiday, so no cash session traded. Delta lines are the live Tuesday premarket futures indication where available (Dow/S&P/Nasdaq-100), not Friday's own realized move; Russell 2K has no direct futures proxy, so its delta is still Friday's change. VIX is the live premarket read. Sparkline paths are illustrative, not tick-accurate.
RATES: Fed hike odds for the Sept 15–16 FOMC hold near 58–60% on CME FedWatch, largely unchanged since last week's hot payrolls print — PPI (Thu) and CPI (Fri) are now the swing data.
FUTURES: Dow futures are down ~389 pts (‑0.73%) and S&P futures off 0.25%, but Nasdaq-100 futures are +0.07% as a modest chip-sector bid offsets the broader risk-off tone.
YIELDS / DOLLAR: The 10-year holds near 4.79–4.80% while DXY has slipped toward 98.80, a two-week low, as traders position ahead of this week's inflation prints.
OIL / IRAN: Brent topped $99 and WTI climbed to ~$94.50 — both six-week highs — after the U.S. and Iran traded strikes over the weekend; XLE hit an intraday all-time high premarket.
Sources: CNBC, FXStreet, Yahoo Finance Energy
CHIPS HOLD THE NASDAQ GREEN. Nasdaq-100 futures are the lone index future in positive territory (+0.07%), lifted by a modest chip-sector bid — NVDA is up ~0.5% premarket ($231), a real but modest move, not the +2% an earlier draft of this page mistakenly carried over from Friday's session.
OIL SPIKED AGAIN. Brent/WTI hit fresh six-week highs after the U.S. and Iran exchanged strikes over the weekend, keeping an inflation premium in the tape.
TRADE FRICTION ADDED. Canada's retaliatory tariffs on ~$20B of U.S. goods took effect Tuesday; Trump said Bombardier can't sell planes in the U.S. without domestic manufacturing.
MEGA-CAP MOVES UNVERIFIED. Single-name premarket % moves for MSFT/GOOGL couldn't be reliably confirmed this run — treat any specific decliner claim with caution and check a live quote before trading off it.
Read: chop-to-pin bias while price holds 7,671–7,800. A move below the 7,671 flip line puts dealers short gamma — downside can accelerate fast.
Read: trend/expansion bias in either direction — moves can outrun SPX, and Nasdaq-100 futures' relative strength argues for testing the upside first today. Watch the 719 flip line; a clean break there tends to run.
Sources: Yahoo Finance, Barchart
Thursday's PPI and Friday's CPI are the last major prints before the Fed's Sept 16 decision. Expect volatility to build through the week.
XLE (energy) is the standout on the oil spike. VIX has ticked up to 15.30, off its 2026 low. Futures point to a split session — Dow/S&P red, Nasdaq-100 green on chips — rather than a uniform risk-off or risk-on tilt. A sector-laggard claim (XLC) from an earlier draft couldn't be independently confirmed and has been removed rather than left unverified.
10Y/DXY/oil are live Tuesday premarket reads; Gold is Monday, Sept 7 (markets closed for cash trading). Sources: Trading Economics, FXStreet, Trading Economics (Gold). Sparkline paths are illustrative.
Dow futures (‑0.73%) and S&P futures (‑0.25%) point to a soft open on trade and Iran-conflict risk, while Nasdaq-100 futures (+0.07%) hold green on a modest chip bid (NVDA +0.5% — real, but far more modest than an earlier draft's mistaken +2%). Oil's fresh six-week high keeps an inflation premium alive just as PPI (Thu) and CPI (Fri) set up the Sept 16 Fed decision, where hike odds sit near 58–60%. SPX's positive-gamma pin (7,671–7,800) argues for fading edges early; QQQ's negative gamma means whichever way 719 breaks can run — and the Nasdaq's relative strength tilts that toward testing the upside first. New Canada trade friction is a headline wildcard into the open — verify any single-stock premarket % before trading off it today.